Author: fungogolf

At the beginning of the season, PECOTA looked up and down the Rockies roster, then spit out its projected win total: 74. As of this writing, Colorado has already post 68 W’s, with 38 games remaining. Barring a horrific turn of events, the Rockies should expect to blow past this projection. This article is not to bash on projection systems; they’re designed to be unbiased, more than they are to be “right”; besides, most humans would have reached the same conclusion when considering their division, their home field, and their history. But here we are with the Rockies safely in the Wild Card defying expectations. The Rockies have always been able to hit, given their friendly environment and their  “the best defense is more offense approach” to their pitching problems. But this year has been somewhat different.

Colorado has historically tried many different approaches to building a rotation. Whether  it be through focusing on groundballers (can hit HRs on the ground) or Fastball specialists (due to the difficult of throwing breaking balls at Coors), the Rockies have failed to crack the code of run prevention a mile above sea level. But this year, an unlikely combo has shown some success, even if largely due to sequencing. The Rockies have had rookies make the majority of starts for the club, with 4 rookies currently having started 63% of their games, especially since Jon Gray, the team’s’ ace, has been limited to just 12 starts. Now this, in no way, declares that bringing in 5 new faces every year to face big league hitters is a reasonable approach. But is there a developing core that the Rockies could ride for the next 5-6 years a la the Mets and their wunderkind?

The answer is no, but not because these guys are bad. German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, and Antonio Senzatela are all currently beginning their Major League careers by combining for 4.48 ERA over 442 IP and 78 starts.  The next highest amount of IP by rookie starters belongs to the Reds, Athletics and Phillies, 3 teams decidedly looking beyond this October. The Mets have amassed a truly impressive collection of arms, but the Rockies newbies have held their own for the most part.The unit’s ERA is the third lowest of any rookie group with at least 150 IP and has compiled 5.8 WAR so far, 2.5 times more than the next group. Marquez has been the leader of the group, with a 14.7 K-BB%, ERA- of 83 and a  FIP- of 86. He has also been remarkably consistent in the strike zone (53.6%), generating a fair amount of swings and misses. A 55 Future value connotes a potential mid-rotation stalwart for years to come, and the 22 year old has fit in well, continuing his strong campaign in the minors last year.

Jeff Hoffman was grading by scouts as having a higher ceiling than Marquez, with the 24 year old projected to become a potential #2 starter. He was the big get in the Tulo trade, but the returns so far have been the lowest of the group. Along with 8 starts at AAA, Hoffman has thrown 91.2 innings in 17 games (16 starts). An ERA of 5.30 and FIP of 4.74 are lackluster, and he is not producing a lot of whiffs or soft contact. Hoffman has not been bad, but he hasn’t been all that good either. Senztela and Freeland, however, have been more pleasant surprises. Kyle Freeland was taken 8th overall in 2014, so by no means is he a random success. But he is control artist lefty with a low 90’s fastball who has put up a 3.74 ERA over 127.2 IP. His 5.77 K/9 illustrates how Freeland needs to create soft contact, which has come in the form of a 55.6% of balls in play being put on the ground. He’s outpitching his 4.75 FIP by a good amount, but his low average exit velocity can help to explain that, along with limiting the number of barreled balls given up this year to under 4%. Antonio Senzatela was a surprise out of the gate, with 9-3 record before the ASG break. Recently, he has made appearances out of the bullpen, but has thrown up a 2.57 ERA over the last month. Like Hoffman, the 4.56 ERA/4.73 FIP are not the stuff of legends but These numbers are ballooned due to a 17.1HR/FB (good ole’ Coors) and a rough slump in at then end of June and into July. As a rookie, it makes sense that one could have success and then struggle once the league has some tape on you. But the bounce back is a good sign, showing that there is an ability there to find ways to make outs.

Typically you can tell how a team is doing if you know how many different pitchers they have had to use in a season, especially the number of rookies. In 2015, The Reds tossed a rookie out there to start a record 64 times in a row to end the season. They also won a total of 64 games. But the Rockies have managed to construct a staff of mostly rookies that has succeeded and has them staring down October. While there have not been any Cy Young candidates lacing up in the black and purple, the consistency of the Rockies rotation has allowed the offense to go out and slug their way to victory. This may not be the same young core the Mets currently have sitting on the DL, but they don’t need to be. Colorado has a 78.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to Steamer, and once you’re there, anything can happen.

The Brewers and their current standing in the National League’s Central division has a hot topic all season, but the real race is in the junior circuit, as the American League’s Central Division is a three horse race. The Indians, current AL pennant holders, sit atop the division as many expected. In second reside the Royals, making one last push before the band inevitably breaks up. But in third is the Minnesota Twins, a team who won less than 60 games in the season prior, yet (as of this writing) is only 4.5 games out of the Division crown and, more interestingly, only 3 games out of the final Wild Card. In fact, the Twins have found themselves to be buyers in recent days, making moves to acquire both Jaime Garcia and Anthony Recker. How did we end up here? Surely the Twins have found some trait or aspect to exploit to accomplish this type of turnaround, right? Well…no, at least not one that can be publicly discerned. Instead, in a league with almost the extreme definition of parity, the Twins have not been good, but have managed to not be bad.

Behold, Miguel Sano. The third year player is having a wonderful year, after having a wonderful year in 2015 but a not-so-wonderful year in 2016. It is interesting to note that Sano has been playing third base this year, after playing third base in 2015 but not third base (right field) in 2016. At this point, a pattern starts to emerge.  The efforts of learning a new position, plus the additional running expected of an outfielder over that of the hot corner, seems to have zapped Sano’s offense in 2016. Miguel is no small guy, so it makes sense that he possibly could have been so focused on getting into OF shape, the hitting side of his game was adversely affected. Plus the Pitching staff he was behind last year made sure he got his sprints in. Now, back where he feels comfortable, he’s tearing the cover off of the ball. Last year his wRC+ sat at 107, but has ballooned to 133 this year, with his walk and strikeout rates returning to their 2015 form. His BABIP is at .377, but last year was at .329 and in 2015? .396 through 300 plate appearances. When you hit the ball as hard as he does, just make contact; it will likely fall for a hit.

One good hitter does a not a contender make (exhibit A-Rod: 2003 AL MVP for the last place Texas Rangers). Obviously the rest of the lineup must have been pulling their weight as well. Can you name any of them? Brian Dozier is probably the first to come to mind, and while he’s not mashing 897 HRs in half a season, he has been about league average, which in the end, is not bad. But what about some others? Has anyone broken out of their shell to lead the Twin’s charge? Not really, Instead the lineup has a collection of players who are doing their job, whatever that may be. Joe Mauer, or the guy who leads the league in “Oh yeah, he still plays” thoughts amongst casual fans, is currently having his best year in the past 4 seasons. Always a savvy hitter, his 14.3K% is the lowest it’s been since 2012 with a wOBA of .332. His league average wRC+ of 106 has managed to not hurt the Twins, which is useful way to help. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, two highly rated prospects, have been between average to slightly below at the plate, but have brought great value defensively. Robbie Grossman has taken a step back from last year, but once again we see him residing at league average (108 wRC+). Eddie Rosario has been the most pleasant surprise in Land of Lakes. The 25-year old has been having his best season by far, hitting 15% better than league average, batting just under .300 on a reasonable .345 BABIP. His walks are up (though still below where you would want them) and his K’s are down (though still above where you would want them) but his .817 OPS seems to indicate its working for him so far.

Looking at the pitching staff, leads to similar findings. Ervin Santana has massively outperformed his peripherals (3.26 ERA / 4.93 FIP), and it would appear that he would at least regress back towards his averages, which is right around league average.  Kyle Gibson has been disappointing, but Jose Berrios has picked up the slack.  Currently tossing a 3.76 ERA, Berrios has been performing well, getting weak contact and attacking the zone, striking out just under 1 batter every inning.  His future seems pretty bright. But Adalberto Mejia, Hector Santiago and even Bartolo Colon have received innings at the back end of the rotation, and that has been…not ok. The rotation has the second lowest K/9, seventh highest NR/9 and a FIP above 5. This explains the move to get Jaime Garcia, and maybe some more help.  The bullpen has a similar construct as the rotation (read: top heavy) and this has led to worse results, with a FIP currently equivalent to the Nationals (!!!). Brandon Kintzler, who has been effective, with a 5.62 K/9, does not scream “shutdown guy” to most in baseball. It makes sense that the Twins could make another move for another reliever. He’s generating soft contact, but his FIP and SIERA are at or near career highs, tarnishing the 2.72 ERA’s silver lining. Taylor Rogers is another good option out of the pen, spinning a 2.79 ERA, but with similar peripherals to Kintzler.  Rogers has an average K/9 and has managed to strand over 85% of inherited base runners, meaning he is getting the job done. He and Kintzler have been the two go-to arms out of the bullpen in higher leverage situations, and have managed to perform well.  After those two, though, there is not much else, especially when comparing to the bullpens of Milwaukee or the Dodgers, both of whom are looking to upgrade still.

And that brings the focus back onto what makes this story interesting. I haven’t mentioned the record yet, and it is probably right about where you would expect after assessing the roster: 49-50. The Twins have played 99 games, and won about half of them. They have been the definition of average. They have hit like an average team, and they have pitched like an (slightly below) average team, leading to average results. And while they’re currently on the outside like in, the window pane is quite thin. The Twins simply need to upgrade to slightly above average and they’re looking at least at a 163rd game this season. The Twins are really the best commentary on the why the trade deadline has presented so many opportunities, but not that much action. There are simply too many teams who have a chance. I don’t necessarily have an opinion on whether that’s a good thing bad; most likely (as with life) it’s a little of both. But it does make for a new aspect to watch for the last 2 weeks of July: the L10 record. Plenty of Front offices are going to be handcuffed up until the 11th hour before they have a clear picture of what they should do. Like the Brewers, the Twins, probably should not go for it, and continued with the expected rebuild. But when you only to get hot for two weeks, how do you justify not try to make that push to the promised land? At some point, someone is going to accept their fate, be it the Rangers, the Mariners or someone else. The fun part of this deadline is not what’s being sold or for how much, but who is going to be doing the selling.