Oh, to be a fan of the Washington Nationals in 2017!
The beloved ballclub of the nation’s capital has arguably the best team in the majors. Their lineup features two of the game’s preeminent young stars in power-hitting right fielder Bryce Harper and fittingly named Anthony “Tony-Two-Bags” Rendon (22 doubles on the season) being backed by established stars Daniel Murphy, Jason Werth and a resurgent Ryan Zimmerman. They have excellent starting pitching, although the depth is now in question giving the injuries to Joe Ross and Stephen Strasburg. (Although the latter likely won’t see time on the DL)
The Nationals have had one, HUGE, glaring problem on their team thus far, however: their bullpen has been the worst in the league, and it’s not been particularly close. Through July 16 Nationals relievers accumulated an fWAR of -0.8 (worst in the majors) an ERA of 5.27 (worst in the majors) and a HR/FB rate of 15.6% (worst in the majors) on their way to blowing 14 saves (tied for 8th in the majors, tied with the brewers for most among first place teams) all while throwing by far the fewest innings in the majors.
But on July 16 GM Mike Rizzo finally acquired some help in the form of Ryan Madsen and Sean Doolittle, two former closers who have returned to form this year to the tune of a 2.43 FIP and a 2.34 FIP respectively. And they probably aren’t finished. The Nats continue to be linked with every tradeable closer on the market, most recently to AJ Ramos of the Marlins and Pat Neshek of the Phillies.
Now that the nationals have two bonafide “closers” — and will likely be adding a third – they don’t need to be locked into the traditional closer-setup man dynamic. And breaking from the traditional form of reliever usage has definite advantages.
Common bullpen usage goes as follows: your closer – who is presumably your best pitcher out of the pen – is saved for the ninth inning, your setup men pitch the seventh and eighth, and your hodgepodge of other arms are used situationally, or when your starter is completely inept and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning. But this way of using relievers is too rigid for modern baseball.
The whole idea of a closer is that they are the best reliver and can shut down an opponent’s lineup in the ninth, but a “closer” should enter in the highest leverage situation. It stands to reason that a team’s best chance to score late in the game (or anytime really) comes when their best hitters (usually lineup positions two through 4) are batting to lead off an inning. It is also true that those hitters have the highest likelihood of getting on base when they’ve seen a pitcher multiple times, an effect known as the “Times Through the Order Penalty.” (Sidebar: this has been discussed at length by Baseball Prospectus, this article by Mitchel Lichtman is definitely worth the read)
My proposal for how Dusty Baker should use the shiny new bullpen toys: bring the “closer” in first. Or more accurately, as soon as the starter is preparing to face the top of the lineup after the sixth inning. By using the best relievers aggressively the team decreases the likelihood of giving up a run by maximizing the pressure on the opposition hitters. And besides, why shouldn’t the best relievers be matched up against the best hitters?
Of course, Dusty Baker won’t do this. He’ll nominate a closer and hold on to him for dear life. He’s old school in his thinking, and old in general, and is unlikely to change now. Besides, changing the way that the team uses relievers won’t change the fact that Shawn Kelly gives up home runs on 27% of fly balls. But it’s a good idea, and it would be cool to see.
Off the Beaten Base Paths 