The Brewers and their current standing in the National League’s Central division has a hot topic all season, but the real race is in the junior circuit, as the American League’s Central Division is a three horse race. The Indians, current AL pennant holders, sit atop the division as many expected. In second reside the Royals, making one last push before the band inevitably breaks up. But in third is the Minnesota Twins, a team who won less than 60 games in the season prior, yet (as of this writing) is only 4.5 games out of the Division crown and, more interestingly, only 3 games out of the final Wild Card. In fact, the Twins have found themselves to be buyers in recent days, making moves to acquire both Jaime Garcia and Anthony Recker. How did we end up here? Surely the Twins have found some trait or aspect to exploit to accomplish this type of turnaround, right? Well…no, at least not one that can be publicly discerned. Instead, in a league with almost the extreme definition of parity, the Twins have not been good, but have managed to not be bad.
Behold, Miguel Sano. The third year player is having a wonderful year, after having a wonderful year in 2015 but a not-so-wonderful year in 2016. It is interesting to note that Sano has been playing third base this year, after playing third base in 2015 but not third base (right field) in 2016. At this point, a pattern starts to emerge. The efforts of learning a new position, plus the additional running expected of an outfielder over that of the hot corner, seems to have zapped Sano’s offense in 2016. Miguel is no small guy, so it makes sense that he possibly could have been so focused on getting into OF shape, the hitting side of his game was adversely affected. Plus the Pitching staff he was behind last year made sure he got his sprints in. Now, back where he feels comfortable, he’s tearing the cover off of the ball. Last year his wRC+ sat at 107, but has ballooned to 133 this year, with his walk and strikeout rates returning to their 2015 form. His BABIP is at .377, but last year was at .329 and in 2015? .396 through 300 plate appearances. When you hit the ball as hard as he does, just make contact; it will likely fall for a hit.
One good hitter does a not a contender make (exhibit A-Rod: 2003 AL MVP for the last place Texas Rangers). Obviously the rest of the lineup must have been pulling their weight as well. Can you name any of them? Brian Dozier is probably the first to come to mind, and while he’s not mashing 897 HRs in half a season, he has been about league average, which in the end, is not bad. But what about some others? Has anyone broken out of their shell to lead the Twin’s charge? Not really, Instead the lineup has a collection of players who are doing their job, whatever that may be. Joe Mauer, or the guy who leads the league in “Oh yeah, he still plays” thoughts amongst casual fans, is currently having his best year in the past 4 seasons. Always a savvy hitter, his 14.3K% is the lowest it’s been since 2012 with a wOBA of .332. His league average wRC+ of 106 has managed to not hurt the Twins, which is useful way to help. Max Kepler and Byron Buxton, two highly rated prospects, have been between average to slightly below at the plate, but have brought great value defensively. Robbie Grossman has taken a step back from last year, but once again we see him residing at league average (108 wRC+). Eddie Rosario has been the most pleasant surprise in Land of Lakes. The 25-year old has been having his best season by far, hitting 15% better than league average, batting just under .300 on a reasonable .345 BABIP. His walks are up (though still below where you would want them) and his K’s are down (though still above where you would want them) but his .817 OPS seems to indicate its working for him so far.
Looking at the pitching staff, leads to similar findings. Ervin Santana has massively outperformed his peripherals (3.26 ERA / 4.93 FIP), and it would appear that he would at least regress back towards his averages, which is right around league average. Kyle Gibson has been disappointing, but Jose Berrios has picked up the slack. Currently tossing a 3.76 ERA, Berrios has been performing well, getting weak contact and attacking the zone, striking out just under 1 batter every inning. His future seems pretty bright. But Adalberto Mejia, Hector Santiago and even Bartolo Colon have received innings at the back end of the rotation, and that has been…not ok. The rotation has the second lowest K/9, seventh highest NR/9 and a FIP above 5. This explains the move to get Jaime Garcia, and maybe some more help. The bullpen has a similar construct as the rotation (read: top heavy) and this has led to worse results, with a FIP currently equivalent to the Nationals (!!!). Brandon Kintzler, who has been effective, with a 5.62 K/9, does not scream “shutdown guy” to most in baseball. It makes sense that the Twins could make another move for another reliever. He’s generating soft contact, but his FIP and SIERA are at or near career highs, tarnishing the 2.72 ERA’s silver lining. Taylor Rogers is another good option out of the pen, spinning a 2.79 ERA, but with similar peripherals to Kintzler. Rogers has an average K/9 and has managed to strand over 85% of inherited base runners, meaning he is getting the job done. He and Kintzler have been the two go-to arms out of the bullpen in higher leverage situations, and have managed to perform well. After those two, though, there is not much else, especially when comparing to the bullpens of Milwaukee or the Dodgers, both of whom are looking to upgrade still.
And that brings the focus back onto what makes this story interesting. I haven’t mentioned the record yet, and it is probably right about where you would expect after assessing the roster: 49-50. The Twins have played 99 games, and won about half of them. They have been the definition of average. They have hit like an average team, and they have pitched like an (slightly below) average team, leading to average results. And while they’re currently on the outside like in, the window pane is quite thin. The Twins simply need to upgrade to slightly above average and they’re looking at least at a 163rd game this season. The Twins are really the best commentary on the why the trade deadline has presented so many opportunities, but not that much action. There are simply too many teams who have a chance. I don’t necessarily have an opinion on whether that’s a good thing bad; most likely (as with life) it’s a little of both. But it does make for a new aspect to watch for the last 2 weeks of July: the L10 record. Plenty of Front offices are going to be handcuffed up until the 11th hour before they have a clear picture of what they should do. Like the Brewers, the Twins, probably should not go for it, and continued with the expected rebuild. But when you only to get hot for two weeks, how do you justify not try to make that push to the promised land? At some point, someone is going to accept their fate, be it the Rangers, the Mariners or someone else. The fun part of this deadline is not what’s being sold or for how much, but who is going to be doing the selling.
Off the Beaten Base Paths 